We are proud to introduce Thresholds of Resilience, a writing series reflecting on the systems required to define our future under extreme pressure. Meditating on the thresholds where incremental inputs create exponential outcomes, we examine the design rigor required to architect mission-critical systems that thrive under pressure. By exploring these interdependent capabilities, we anchor breakthroughs to systems of enduring national importance, building a symbiotic portfolio that reinforces the backbone of national security.
Essay 01: Investing in Critical Industrial Systems Over the last decade, we have seen that the true measure of innovation is not found in the distinction between hardware and software, but in the ability to build systems and infrastructure that function when and where it matters most. We have moved past an era of digital-only optimization to one where the most enduring value is created by systems designed to withstand a world under pressure. This rise of a new generation of technical founders has demonstrated that complex physical operations and infrastructure, when unified by advanced intelligence, can scale with the same velocity and impact as the digital platforms that preceded them. We are moving from an area of digital optimization to one of material agency, marking a decisive break from the software-as-a-service hegemony that has governed global commerce for three decades. This is a decisive phase-shift from digital abstraction toward the unlocking of new and essential capabilities that can secure industrial resilience in a landscape defined by increasing friction and complexity. Building for a World Under Pressure A world under pressure demands systems of enduring national importance designed to be resilient, rather than just permit the frictionless flow of information. The true value of any industrial system is revealed only when it is under duress. This is why our investment ideology has evolved beyond categories - instead to vectors that identify the phase-change thresholds where technical breakthroughs meet the urgent needs of re-industrialization. As long-term stewards of capital, we are looking for the moments when a technology shifts from a theoretical possibility to an industrial standard. The Crisis of Capacity A critical observation in the current market is the inventory crisis, a crisis put on full display by the disruption of the COVID-19 pandemic. Recent conflicts have exposed the inability of Western industry to match the rate of fire required in modern high-intensity warfare. This "Sputnik Moment" has revealed a terrifying reality: our current industrial base has left us unable to match the technological velocity of our adversaries. Just as the launch of Sputnik 1 forced a fundamental restructuring of national technology acquisition, today’s landscape demands a decisive shift toward sovereignty and rapid industrialization. Studies suggest that in a major conflict, current defensive stockpiles could be exhausted in a matter of days. The industrial base that once served as the arsenal of democracy has withered due to decades of bureaucracy and under investment in innovation. Critical outputs across this industrial base are at a bottleneck, for example in deficits in solid rocket motors, specialized semiconductors for tactical-edge intelligence, and high-efficiency solar cells for resilient satellite networks. These material chokepoints represent the final hurdle in the crisis of capacity, where the velocity of the factory floor defines the ultimate ceiling of industrial resilience. This has created a bifurcated market where legacy contractors maintain exquisite platforms while a new class of software-defined companies must provide the attritable mass required for modern resilience. We have entered a period of great power competition that requires a fundamental restructuring of how a nation acquires and develops technology, generates energy, and manages logistics. The focus has shifted aggressively toward industrialization, and rapid adoption, mainly in the mass production of autonomous systems, and the ability to sustain high-intensity conflict and the necessary supply chains in contested environments. The 2026 Horizon: The Ring of Resilience Our perspective on the market identifies a nexus on the 2026 investment horizon, anchored by the ‘Ring of Resilience’: a map of six critical nodes designed to sustain an advanced economy under extreme pressure. This transition mirrors the Cold War Microelectronics Race, where the shift from fragile vacuum tubes to solid-state integrated circuits was driven not by consumer demand, but by the necessity of building systems that could survive the "kinetic stress" of a missile launch.This architecture is built on the reality that these capabilities are profoundly interdependent; solving a technical puzzle in one domain unlocks exponential potential in another. It begins with Cognitive Command, the "Physical AI" layer that fuses software with machinery to automate complex workflows. This intelligence relies on Incorruptible Senses to provide secure, high-fidelity data across contested environments. These systems are fueled by Bio-Industrial Sovereignty, which transforms biology into a point-of-need manufacturing technology, and Mach-Ten Industries, which redefine the speed of national defense and mobility. This entire ecosystem is stitched together by Delta-V Ubiquity, ensuring resilient access to the high ground of space, and Contested Logistics, the vital conduit for global commerce. Investing in the Systems that Endure Based on these market forces, several key assumptions drive modern investment. First, resilience must be prioritized over efficiency. The premium is now on supply chains that can survive disruption rather than those that are merely the lowest cost. Just-in-time delivery models, which fail under kinetic stress, are being replaced by distributed production. Second, sovereignty is prioritized over interdependence. Nations are aggressively on-shoring critical capabilities, from microelectronics to energy storage, to avoid vulnerabilities in adversarial supply chains. At AV, we are a conviction-led firm that backs founders building critical infrastructure. We do not merely back startups; we are supporting a symbiotic ecosystem of technical excellence. Few frontiers are unfamiliar to us; if we haven't lived the challenge ourselves, someone in our trusted orbit has. We bring this deep experience to the builders we back, providing a platform of catalytic capital to accelerate the adoption of technologies essential for national security grade industrial systems. We are investing in the systems that endure.